A paper published in the journal Science way back in 1981 , one of the early papers linking climate change to increased CO2 (among other factors) and modelling predictions for climate change out to 2100. It was done by a group of 7 climate scientists.
The paper, “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”, had as its lead author none other then James Hansen currently working at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Now interestingly when this paper was written- global temperatures were declining. And mean global temps were below those of the 1940’s. But the authors predicted: “a rise in temperature due to increasing CO2 emissions.”
Good but short article at the UK’s Register (a top and respected newspaper) here
and a quote: The paper’s authors assumed that no action would be taken to rein in CO2 emissions until at least 1990, and so their projections don’t begin to deviate until that date. After 1990, they applied different sets of variables to their models, ranging from a worst case in which coal-derived synthetic fuels replace oil and gas and there is a large increase in fuel usage, and a best case in which non-fossil fuels are the replacement and there is no growth in their usage.
And after the 90’s- their predictions became a little too optimistic- things are generally worse then the predicted.
More Discussion from climate scientists here